Crowd Threat · Live Now
Crowd Survey
Coming Soon
Crowd Signal
Founding Access
Verified ground-truth data.
What can you do with it?

Crowd Threat is live — a global network of verified local reporters submitting real-time incident intelligence before it reaches any wire, aggregator, or public channel. Crowd Survey is coming: a 30-day forward stability forecast, built from 7 leading indicators, in every country we cover. Crowd Signal maps every verified incident to live prediction markets.

app.crowdthreat.world
Live
Crowd Threat platform
Products
One crowd. Three intelligence layers.

Every product is powered by the same asset — a global network of vetted local reporters submitting verified incidents the moment they occur. The same data feeds Crowd Threat, Crowd Survey, and Crowd Signal — each calibrated for a different analytical need.

◆ Shared foundation

All three products are built on the same verified incident data. Subscribe to Crowd Threat, Crowd Survey, or Crowd Signal — or combine them for the full intelligence stack.

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Products
How the data gets put to work

Crowd Threat is available now. Use cases for Crowd Survey and Crowd Signal will unlock when those products launch.

Crowd Threat · Live
01 · Physical Security
Asset and personnel protection

Security operations centres use our live incident feed to monitor threats near assets, personnel, and supply routes. Proximity alerts fire within minutes of a verified incident — before it reaches any news wire.

GSOCAsset monitoringProximity alertsReal-time feed
Crowd Threat · Live
02 · Travel Security
Duty of care and traveller intelligence

Travel security managers use Crowd Threat to monitor conditions for travellers in real time. Granular, city-level incident data captures events that international media never covers — especially in under-reported regions.

Duty of careRoute monitoringCity-level coverageTraveller alerts
Crowd Threat · Live
03 · Intelligence Platforms
A verified data layer for analyst stacks

Threat intelligence platforms and boutique advisory firms pipe our API into their own systems — using our verified, crowd-sourced incident layer as the primary data source for pattern analysis, reporting, and client deliverables.

REST APICustom integrationsIncident categorisationSource scoring
Crowd Signal · Coming Soon
04 · Prediction Markets
Alpha signals for geopolitical event markets

Verified on-the-ground incidents create information asymmetry in geopolitical prediction markets. Crowd Signal surfaces that asymmetry — with market legs, probability bars, and delta indicators — before the information reaches open-source channels.

Crowd SignalPrediction marketsAlpha signalsEvent mapping
Crowd Survey · Coming Soon
05 · Political Risk & Insurance
Leading indicators for underwriting and claims

Crowd Survey's Stability Vector surfaces conditions that consistently precede instability — weeks before incident volumes spike. Underwriters use the forward-looking score to price exposure; incident data provides the evidentiary layer for claims.

Stability VectorPre-incident signalsClaims verificationCountry risk
Crowd Survey · Coming Soon
06 · Strategic Intelligence
30-day forward stability forecasts by country

Crowd Survey gives strategic intelligence teams and government advisors a weekly forward forecast across 7 leading indicators — security sentiment, governance confidence, economic stress, protest likelihood, and more — in every country we cover.

Forward forecasting7 indicatorsCountry stabilityWeekly cadence
Crowd Signal
Founding Access Now
Ground-truth alpha before it's priced in.

Crowd Threat is not public information — it's a verified incident feed from local reporters embedded in the communities where events are unfolding. Geopolitical prediction markets are priced on publicly available information. That gap is the edge.

When a verified incident is material to a live prediction market, Crowd Signal surfaces the signal: the relevant market legs, live probability bars with 24-hour deltas, and a structured alpha callout — before the information reaches open-source channels.

Information asymmetry
Verified incidents from local reporters exist before any wire, aggregator, or OSINT platform. That gap is the alpha window.
Live market mapping
Crowd Signal maps each incident to the most relevant prediction market legs — current probability, 24-hour delta, and colour-coded bars.
Open in CT AI →
Every alert deep-links to CT AI for full incident analysis, source reliability scoring, and cross-market impact assessment.
Explore Crowd Signal →
Crowd Signal · Preview
14:23 LT · Apr 7 2026
◆ Verified Incident · CT-2026-04-07-LBN-0031
Lethal IDF strike on CERT first responders — Nabatieh District, Lebanon
Verified: Three Lebanese Civil Defence personnel KIA during secondary strike on rescue operation. Strike at 14:23 local. Reporter trust Level 2 — 91% accuracy. Source: video + eyewitness corroboration. Not yet in open-source channels.
ReporterReporter #LBN-077
Accuracy91%
TrustL2
Will the US invade Iran by Dec 31 2026?
Vol $29.1M
Yes — by Apr 30
56%7%
Yes — by Jun 30
68%4%
Yes — by Dec 31
78%2%
No
22%2%
Iran-Israel ceasefire by Jun 30 2026?
Vol $12.4M
Yes — by Mar 31
11%3%
Yes — by Apr 30
33%5%
Yes — by Jun 30
60%18%
No
40%18%
Alpha Signal
Verified lethal strike on civilian responders, Nabatieh District. Apr 15 ceasefire priced at 11% YES. Information not yet reflected in Apr 30 leg (33%). Market most sensitive to tempo escalation data.
Crowd Signal · Not investment advice · Raw intelligence, your analysis
Coming Soon
Crowd Survey
Coming Soon
What comes before the incident.

Crowd Threat tells you what happened. Crowd Survey tells you what's likely to happen next.

Built from 7 leading indicators that have consistently preceded instability — invisible to scrapers, observable only through a calibrated local network — Crowd Survey delivers a 30-day forward stability forecast for every country we cover, updated weekly.

Security sentiment — community perceptions of personal and public safety
Economic stress index — household income pressure and employment anxiety
Governance confidence — trust in institutions, police, and political leadership
Protest likelihood — self-reported willingness to demonstrate publicly
Inter-communal tension — friction across ethnic, religious, and political lines
Register for Access — Be First When We Launch
Stability Vector · Kenya
Week 13 · 2026
Overall Score
62.4
↓ 4.1 from last week
Vector Direction
↙ Deteriorating
Velocity: moderate · CI: ±3.2
Security Environment
58
Economic Conditions
44
Social Cohesion
66
Political Temperature
71
Forward Expectation
51
30-day Forecast
Elevated risk of civil unrest escalation within 30 days. Economic conditions and forward expectation indicators are below threshold. 3 of 5 indicators in negative territory.
Crowd Survey
Survey Programme
Three tiers. One signal stack.

Crowd Survey is built on a three-tier contributor programme — each tier capturing a different temporal layer of stability intelligence. Together they produce a signal stack that no scraper, news aggregator, or satellite system can replicate.

Daily
First signal
Weekly
Structural trend
Monthly
Slow indicators
Daily Pulse
Daily Pulse
£0.15–0.20
per completion
Every day
~60 seconds
2–3 questions

Rapid daily check-ins that capture the first signals of deterioration. Questions rotate from a bank of 21 spanning security, economics, movement, and community mood. Triggers analytics when 25%+ of regional contributors report deterioration within 48 hours.

Security & Safety
Economic Signals
Behavioural & Movement
Mood & Sentiment
Weekly Structured
Weekly Structured
£0.75–1.00
per completion
Once per week
~4 minutes
8–12 questions

Structured thematic surveys that track the five core stability dimensions. Four versions (A/B/C/D) rotate monthly. Dimension 5 — Forward Expectation — is always included and provides the primary input for the Stability Vector direction and velocity metrics.

Security Environment
Economic Conditions
Social Cohesion
Political Temperature
Forward Expectation (always)
Monthly Deep Survey
Monthly Deep Survey
£2.50–3.00
per completion
Once per month
~12 minutes
20–30 questions

Deep structural indicators — the slow-moving signals that are the most reliable medium-term predictors of instability. Covers institutional trust, inter-community relations, economic trajectory, migration intention, and governance legitimacy. Ends with three open-text questions that feed the analyst layer directly.

Institutional Trust
Inter-Community Relations
Economic Trajectory
Migration Intention
Governance Legitimacy
Accuracy Bonus
Top 10% of accurate reporters earn a bonus multiplier.

Survey responses are compared against known events after the fact. Top performers earn a permanent multiplier on all survey pay — rewarding quality over quantity.

+25%
Bonus on all survey pay
Register for Access
Integrations
Where does it sit in your stack?

Crowd Threat is a complementary data layer — not a replacement. Here's how different teams put it to work alongside what they already use.

Existing TI Platforms

Already using a threat intelligence platform? Crowd Threat's API sits alongside it as a complementary verified incident layer — covering the ground-level events that scrapers and aggregators miss.

Prediction Market Tools

Crowd Signal maps verified incident data directly to live geopolitical prediction markets — providing the information asymmetry layer that public information sources cannot supply.

Crisis & Emergency Management

Crisis management platforms and emergency response teams use the real-time feed to detect and respond to incidents in protected zones — with verified ground-truth rather than social media noise.

Risk & Insurance Underwriting

Political risk underwriters use Crowd Survey's Stability Vector as a leading indicator for country risk exposure, and Crowd Threat incident data as the evidentiary layer for event-driven claims.

Analytics & Data Science

Data science teams and analytical platforms ingest our high-volume, real-time incident stream as training data or input signals for predictive models and situational intelligence tools.

News & Media Monitoring

Newsrooms and wire services use Crowd Threat for early detection of breaking incidents in under-reported regions — identifying stories before they surface in any public channel.

Full REST API · Webhook support · JSON / CSV export · Custom field mapping

Get Started
See the data in action.

Request a personalised demo and we'll walk you through the use case most relevant to your team — GSOC monitoring, prediction market alpha, political risk, or API integration.

CT AI Chrome Extension
◆ CT AI · Chrome Extension

Intelligence from any webpage.
In under 30 seconds.

Right-click any article, threat report, news story, or advisory. Get a full structured intelligence brief — built to the same standard as reports that used to take analysts hours to write. Filtered through your sector, your locations, your risk profile.

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