Before the market has the data.
Prediction markets price on publicly-available information. Crowd Threat's verified reporter network produces ground-truth data that is not yet public. Crowd Signal maps that data directly to live prediction markets — incident to odds, with the 24-hour price move and a short note on why it matters — in the minutes after events occur.
A real alert, mapped to a live prediction market. This example: Iran's toll collection on Hormuz transits — verified field data that structurally changes the probability of traffic normalisation. Click any section on the card to learn what it means.
Both clips below are from the founder of Polymarket — the prediction market Crowd Signal is mapping alpha into. In his own words: traders who do real geopolitical research have an edge, and OSINT practitioners can turn their expertise into market alpha. That is exactly the pitch Crowd Signal makes. We industrialise what he is describing — 150+ vetted reporters, verified ground-truth data, delivered in minutes, mapped to the markets it moves.
The founder of Polymarket — the prediction market we're mapping Crowd Signal's alpha into — on who wins: people doing real geopolitical research. That's exactly the gap Crowd Signal closes. 150+ vetted reporters across the globe produce the verified ground-truth research the winners are using, delivered in minutes. No scraping, no guessing, no waiting for the wire.
The same founder on why OSINT practitioners turn their expertise into prediction market alpha. OSINT is the free, unpaid, public-domain version of intelligence work. Crowd Signal is the professional layer — vetted local reporters producing verified intelligence before it's open-source, mapped directly to the markets it moves. The hobbyist edge, industrialised.
Join the waitlist and be first when Crowd Signal launches — the verified reporter network, incident verification, and market mapping pipeline.
Crowd Signal is in development. Join the waitlist and you'll be first to know when we launch — and you'll help shape the product before it goes public.
Verified incident feed mapped to live prediction markets. Beta starts in late 2026. Waitlist members receive every alert from day one and help shape the product as we build it.
Enter your email and we'll notify you the moment Crowd Signal opens for access.
Crowd Signal isn't built on public data, scraped news, or Twitter sentiment. It's built on a proprietary global network that produces three distinct data layers — each one impossible for a competitor to replicate without 150+ vetted reporters in 55 countries.
The combined edge: Crowd Survey tells you stability is deteriorating weeks before an event. Crowd Threat delivers the verified incident the moment it happens. Crowd Signal maps both to the markets they move. Waitlist members get full access as each layer launches.
Every trader watches the same public feed. Crowd Signal subscribers get two signals that other traders do not have. Crowd Survey flags deteriorating stability weeks before an incident lands. Crowd Threat delivers the verified incident itself minutes before any public wire.
Lebanon Security Environment score drops 4.1 points week-on-week across Nabatieh and South Governorate respondents. Amber signal delivered to waitlist subscribers.
IDF strike on Lebanese Civil Defence first responders confirmed at 14:23 LT by Reporter #LBN-077. Video + eyewitness corroboration. Trust Level 2, 91% historical accuracy.
Public news breaks at 15:10 LT. Market begins to adjust. CT subscribers have already had 47 minutes to position on the Jun 30 Yes leg.
Jun 30 Yes leg moves from 43% → 60%. +17 point total shift. CT subscribers captured the first 5 points in the alpha window. CS subscribers had context weeks before.
Scenarios illustrate the compound-signal mechanism across different market categories. Not historical trade records.
Waitlist members get CT-based Crowd Signal alerts from day one. CS Stability Vector access unlocks automatically when it launches — no additional charge.
Any prediction market whose outcome moves on verifiable ground events. Four categories where the asymmetry is deepest:
Iran invasion/ceasefire, Ukraine territorial control, Taiwan escalation, Middle East regional dynamics. These markets move on verified ground events and have deep liquidity.
$100M+ annual volumeEmerging market elections, coup probabilities, leadership transitions. Western media coverage lags significantly. Our reporter network is often first with credible signal.
Deep edge in under-covered regionsOil, wheat, shipping lane disruption, sanctions packages. When a strike hits infrastructure or a port closes, the commodity market moves. Our reporters see it first.
Direct physical-to-market pathMajor attacks, mass casualty events, natural disasters in under-monitored regions. These reset entire market categories. Hours of edge possible before Reuters picks it up.
Hours of edge, not minutesA verified reporter on the ground submits an incident to Crowd Threat — photo, video, eyewitness corroboration.
AI-assisted triage plus human verification. Reporter trust score and multi-source corroboration determine confidence.
The incident is matched against 400+ live prediction market legs. Relevance, directional impact, and magnitude estimated.
You get a structured alert: the incident, the markets, live probability bars with the 24-hour price move, and a one-line note on why it matters.
While Crowd Signal rolls out, we're posting verified field reports mapped to live prediction markets on @CrowdSignal_ — and we'll keep doing it after launch. Follow to track the calls before you commit to founding access.
Informational · Not financial advice · Operators may hold positions
Informational analysis only. Not financial advice.
Crowd Signal publishes informational analysis derived from open-source intelligence reports verified through the Crowd Threat reporter network.
Nothing posted, published, or otherwise distributed by Crowd Signal, Crowd Threat Limited, or its operators constitutes financial advice, investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, security, derivative, token, or prediction-market position.
Prediction markets referenced (including but not limited to Polymarket) are operated by independent third parties. Access, availability, and legality of these markets vary by jurisdiction — in particular, several markets are restricted in the United States, the United Kingdom, and other regions. Users are solely responsible for confirming that any activity they undertake is lawful in their jurisdiction of residence.
Readers are solely responsible for their own decisions. Past signals are no guide to future outcomes. Capital is at risk in any market activity; you may lose the full amount committed.
The operators of Crowd Signal and Crowd Threat may at any time hold positions — long or short — in the markets and outcomes referenced, and may trade around any signal published. Specific positions are not disclosed on a per-post basis.
Signal latency, reporter-verification figures, and confidence levels are self-reported by Crowd Signal based on internal processes. Reporter identity verification is conducted internally and is not independently audited.
For commercial access to the underlying intelligence network: crowdthreat.com
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