Before the market has the information.
Prediction markets price on publicly-available information. Crowd Threat's verified reporter network produces ground-truth intelligence that is not yet public. Crowd Signal maps that intelligence directly to live prediction markets — incident to odds, with the 24-hour price move and a short note on why it matters — in the minutes after events occur.
On the right: a real alert format. A verified IDF strike on Lebanese first responders — captured by one of our reporters at 14:23 local, verified, and mapped to the two most relevant prediction markets within minutes.
Both clips below are from the founder of Polymarket — the prediction market Crowd Signal is mapping alpha into. In his own words: traders who do real geopolitical research have an edge, and OSINT practitioners can turn their expertise into market alpha. That is exactly the pitch Crowd Signal makes. We industrialise what he is describing — 150+ vetted reporters, verified ground-truth, delivered in minutes, mapped to the markets it moves.
The founder of Polymarket — the prediction market we're mapping Crowd Signal's alpha into — on who wins: people doing real geopolitical research. That's exactly the gap Crowd Signal closes. 150+ vetted reporters across the globe produce the verified ground-truth research the winners are using, delivered in minutes. No scraping, no guessing, no waiting for the wire.
The same founder on why OSINT practitioners turn their expertise into prediction market alpha. OSINT is the free, unpaid, public-domain version of intelligence work. Crowd Signal is the professional layer — vetted local reporters producing verified intelligence before it's open-source, mapped directly to the markets it moves. The hobbyist edge, industrialised.
Founding members get the full Crowd Signal pipeline — verified reporter network, incident verification, market mapping — locked at £99/mo for life.
Founding members pay £99/month and keep that rate when Crowd Signal launches at the standard £199/mo. Only 100 founding spots — first-come, first-served. Beta alerts start in late 2026.
Verified incident feed mapped to live prediction markets. Beta starts in late 2026, public launch shortly after. You get every alert from day one and shape the product as we build it.
Only 100 founding spots — first-come, first-served.
Crowd Signal isn't built on public data, scraped news, or Twitter sentiment. It's built on a proprietary global network that produces three distinct intelligence layers — each one impossible for a competitor to replicate without 150+ vetted reporters in 55 countries. Scroll horizontally in your head: this is what moves into your inbox.
The combined edge: Crowd Survey tells you stability is deteriorating weeks before an event. Crowd Threat delivers the verified incident the moment it happens. Crowd Signal maps both to the markets they move. Founding members get the full stack as each layer launches.
Every trader watches the same public feed. Crowd Signal subscribers get two signals that other traders do not have. Crowd Survey flags deteriorating stability weeks before an incident lands. Crowd Threat delivers the verified incident itself minutes before any public wire. Together, they compound into an edge that is structurally impossible to replicate without our reporter network.
Lebanon Security Environment score drops 4.1 points week-on-week across Nabatieh and South Governorate respondents. Amber signal delivered to founding subscribers.
IDF strike on Lebanese Civil Defence first responders confirmed at 14:23 LT by Reporter #LBN-077. Video + eyewitness corroboration. Trust Level 2, 91% historical accuracy.
Public news breaks at 15:10 LT. Market begins to adjust. CT subscribers have already had 47 minutes to position on the Jun 30 Yes leg.
Jun 30 Yes leg moves from 43% → 60%. +17 point total shift. CT subscribers captured the first 5 points in the alpha window. CS subscribers had context weeks before.
Scenarios illustrate the compound-signal mechanism across different market categories. Not historical trade records.
Founding members get CT-based Crowd Signal alerts from day one. CS Stability Vector access unlocks automatically when it launches — no additional charge.
Any prediction market whose outcome moves on verifiable ground events. Four categories where the asymmetry is deepest:
Iran invasion/ceasefire, Ukraine territorial control, Taiwan escalation, Middle East regional dynamics. These markets move on verified ground events and have deep liquidity.
$100M+ annual volumeEmerging market elections, coup probabilities, leadership transitions. Western media coverage lags significantly. Our reporter network is often first with credible signal.
Deep edge in under-covered regionsOil, wheat, shipping lane disruption, sanctions packages. When a strike hits infrastructure or a port closes, the commodity market moves. Our reporters see it first.
Direct physical-to-market pathMajor attacks, mass casualty events, natural disasters in under-monitored regions. These reset entire market categories. Hours of edge possible before Reuters picks it up.
Hours of edge, not minutesA verified reporter on the ground submits an incident to Crowd Threat — photo, video, eyewitness corroboration.
AI-assisted triage plus human verification. Reporter trust score and multi-source corroboration determine confidence.
The incident is matched against 400+ live prediction market legs. Relevance, directional impact, and magnitude estimated.
You get a structured alert: the incident, the markets, live probability bars with the 24-hour price move, and a one-line note on why it matters.
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